Recent data from Colin Campbell at ASPO, one of the world's most experienced in the study of peak oil, indicate that the peak extraction of oil will occur around 2012 (See diagram below).After this date (give or take two or three years, depending on the extraction capacity of the Russian oil fields), a sharp increase in absolute fuel prices can be expected, since demand will exceed supply.To fill the gap between demand (dotted line, assuming a 1% increase p.a.) and supply might be extemey hard. Below is a calculation how many nuclear plant that would be needed.
An estimate of the carrying capacity for humans on Earth without fossil fuels.
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Actually, quite recently, a full-scale experiment on oil depletion on an industrialized society was made, using North Korea and Cuba The result was that a highly specialized, export-import based agriculture succumbed, but one based on organnic growing for local production suvrived. |
Read this animated description of the problem!
More about this, see The Big Rollover
How to cope with the problem? Join the Running On Empty discussion group.
An article discussing the problems
A good summary by George Monbiot
What if we plan for a no-peak society?
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